Sunday, November 9, 2014

Is Your Company Driven by Speculators?

TL;DR
Speculators are not evil.  There is nothing wrong with speculation per se.  The problem is mixing incompatible financial objectives.

Speculation versus Investing
A good, first-order way to differentiate speculators from investors is that speculators are primarily interested in capital appreciation and investors are primarily interested in dividends.

Aligning Objectives
When thinking about whether a certain person or organization is a good fit for your company, alignment on speculation versus investing is fundamental.  Sometimes this discussion is framed in terms of a "lifestyle business".

Where Does Capital Appreciation Come From?
In order for capital appreciation to occur, there must be an upside surprise. A stable company must start growing.  A growing company must start growing faster.  A declining company must slow the rate of decline.  A company that is profitable, but appears to be on a steady trajectory, is not useful to a speculator, but can be very valuable to other stakeholders (employees, investors, customers, suppliers, the community).

A stable, profitable company will encounter problems when speculators are able to influence management decisions.  Of course, sometimes the speculators are the management team due to the incentives they have been given.  Sometimes they give these incentives to themselves 

A Startup is Speculation by Definition
A startup is an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.


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